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Dow is up 272 points as I write this...

posted 3/23/2009 10:50:17 AM |
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  somnium

Considering the economy as it is, I personally think this is a "sucker's" rally! In other words, I think the markets are running up under false pretenses and after "sucking" in more money from people, will then drop like a rock losing yet more money from people that can't afford it.

I'm going to jump in sometime down the road but certainly not now or in the very near future. I've lost a pretty good amount of money over the last 8 years but I've also learned too. I consider the money I've lost as tuition in the school of investing. I'm a trader and really don't blame anyone other than myself for what I've lost. But I am ready to get back in!

Anyone here "in the markets" or have you gotten out in time to hopefully save most of what you have?





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Comments:

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evild614

Mar 23 @ 10:59AM  
I play in the market a little when I can spare a couple bucks. Actually, the markets were running under false pretenses around 99-2003, with a decent sized correction in 2001. Here's the thing to remember about the stock market:

When the market is at its lowest, everyone is pissed off and wants nothing to do with it. This is actually the best time to buy in.

When the market is at its highest, everyone is excited and wants a piece of it. This is actually the worst time to buy in.
somnium

Mar 23 @ 11:08AM  
Actually, the markets were running under false pretenses around 99-2003

I agree with you on all points you've made- although, I was referring to today's rally.

A warning to people- do not listen to the talking heads on TV no matter what channel you watch! They may sound like they make sense but you'll definitely lose, if you listen to them. That's another lesson I learned.

Thenewguy2957

Mar 23 @ 11:34AM  
You MAY be right or you may be wrong, no one knows. The markets are forward looking, trying to predict what will happen in the next 6 - 12 months. Amidst all the bad news we are starting to see some good news in certain sectors. Since the bad news has already been priced in this good news helps to move prices up as people start thinking we may be near the bottom and things will start going back up from here.
If I wasn't already in the stock market I probably wouldn't get in now but I also won't sell now either (unless you want to take a loss for tax purposes) since that would lock in my losses.
In my case a 5% annual return would get me back to even in about four years and back to my previous profit level in about seven. The stock market has returned about 10% annually over the last 60 or 70 years.
There is probably more bad news to come and more good. Only time will tell.
Thenewguy2957

Mar 23 @ 11:39AM  
A warning to people- do not listen to the talking heads on TV no matter what channel you watch!

I totally agree with that. I don't think they know what a long term investment is. Listening to them you'd think you have to buy and sell on a daily basis.

It's also amazing the reasons given for the market to do anything. It may be true but it's stuff that the average person has no way of knowing and wouldn't think it had any influence at all. For that reason mutual funds run by professional managers is probably the best way for the average person to participate.
GryGoast

Mar 23 @ 11:44AM  
I personally think this is a "sucker's" rally!

The Obama Administration announced this morning they are making 500 billion available to purge "Toxic Assets". This kind of news tends to make the markets a bit optimistic.

This is the right problem to focus on, to bad there are still 30+ TRILION in Credit Default Swaps, (Off Book Liability's) still in the system.
Thenewguy2957

Mar 23 @ 11:56AM  
This is the right problem to focus on, to bad there are still 30+ TRILION in Credit Default Swaps, (Off Book Liability's) still in the system.

Yeah those foreclosed properties and such that will ultimately have some value but the problem now is that they are worth less than they were and we don't know what they actually are or will be worth.
I think the gov't requires them to write them off or sell them at current market value,( mark to market) and get them off the books which is part of the reason we have this problem.
somnium

Mar 23 @ 12:23PM  
The markets are forward looking, trying to predict what will happen in the next 6 - 12 months

It would be nice if we all had a time machine looking forward. But since we don't, the markets can't price in all future events. The markets haven't, IMO, priced in yet, any commercial or industrial property problems (if companies go out of business, then you end up with a lot of vacant com/ind properties) or the bond markets or banks or any other unknown surprises down the road.

I'm not an expert but I don't like what I see and all of the trillions being thrown around hap-hazardously without any consideration of what the people have to say about all this, since it's our money- not the governments and without even analyzing each situation properly, is ludicrous at the least!

This to me is all about the transfer of wealth and power! JMO
sugarnspice005

Mar 23 @ 12:25PM  
In all honesty....I don't "get" the market..so I don't invest. I'm poor anyway...so I don't have any cash to risk on it.
GryGoast

Mar 23 @ 12:46PM  
6-12 months is optomistic to say the least, (Did a talking head tell ya that ). More like 2-3 years, best case senerio.

This to me is all about the transfer of wealth and power!

I've said this before, and recently, and damn near got Stoned for my efforts ... But

If the Republicand are champions of the rich and gready and the Dems are the champions of the poor and working class. Dosen't it follow that the Dems have a vested interest in make poor people? Thats done bye disapiering money, you just witnessed how thay do it.
somnium

Mar 23 @ 12:54PM  
I've said this before, and recently, and damn near got Stoned for my efforts ... But

I'm prepared to be stoned- have a shield like a SWAT team would carry!

selectusername

Mar 23 @ 12:54PM  
I bought oil when it was $ 44 a barrel so right now I'm ahead
but I ain't sellin it yet. I missed it when it was down to 32.
I knew damn well that was low but I was broke. I subscribe
to the Complete Investor and read the Dow Jones Newsletter
that is free for members of Scottrade. The thing to do was
buy into a commodities fund around the end of February.
Those are already up about 20 percent. This was predicted
in the Complete Investor and it also happened in the Great
Depression. Commodities sank very low worldwide and they
had nowhere to go but up. Forget television, that's for morons.
You have to do a bit of reading each day and have patience.
Forget the quick buck, that's a fool's game. There are still
opportunities, I suggest going long(could be over a year!) on
a commodities fund like CME, GSG, IGE or HACMX. It's gonna

be awhile because the banking system is so fucked up.
MUDSHARK450

Mar 23 @ 1:39PM  
The rally is still not broad based enough to give confidence. However there is no real resistence until the Dow nears 8000. The market was so oversold that any good news was enough to be a catylst. For years risk was discounted now risk is severely overstated. I have continued my investment plan with little modifications throughout. Ten years from now this will just be a blip in our memories.
evild614

Mar 23 @ 2:38PM  
If you guys need a SWAT shield before you get stoned, you're doing it wrong. Why not get stoned the way us democrats do it? It's much more pleasant.
somnium

Mar 23 @ 3:02PM  
Why not get stoned the way us democrats do it? It's much more pleasant.

Well... that would explain their over-all actions for the past few months!

MUDSHARK450

Mar 23 @ 3:33PM  

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Dow is up 272 points as I write this...